eHealth Predictions for 2009 - Episode 25
Meredith Abreu Ressi, VP of research

For this podcast, I’d like to throw my hat in the ring with some predictions for the state of eHealth in 2009.

Prediction number one, like most predictions for 2009, involves the economy. Namely, that the economy will continue to wreak havoc on healthcare delivery across the nation. In 2008, we saw almost forty million people decide not to fill a prescription because of the cost. This trend is certain to continue in 2009, as job losses mount and companies find ways to cut corners through insurance coverage.  And what does this mean for eHealth? We saw that last year, more consumers turned to the Internet for health information than their physician, a trend that was largely driven by issues of access and affordability of routine physician visits. So as this continues to be a reality for many Americans, we expect even more consumers to turn to the Internet for health information.

Prediction number two is that this is not going to be the year that we see personal health records, or PHRs, take off.  We’ve seen some incredibly compelling applications from players ranging from Google, WebMD and Microsoft to insurers and employers. But for your average consumer, unless you are motivated by a serious illness – personally or in your family – the value just isn’t there. When you live in a country that hasn't made universal standards for medical record interoperability a priority, and you go to a doctor who has your entire medical history in a coffee-stained manila folder, it's hard to understand why it would be worth the effort to keep a personal health record on your own.

Prediction number three, and this is a hopeful one – is that we will start to see some progress toward widespread Health IT initiatives in the incoming administration. I was at a conference recently and someone compared our lack of EHR standards and practices to the government leaving air traffic control up to the individual airports, without a coordinating system. Of course that would never happen - we'd have planes crashing in the sky all day long. Well that's what we have in the medical community today - planes crashing in the sky in the form of medical errors, misdiagnoses, and drug interactions. While I doubt it will all magically come together in 2009, I am hopeful that we will see more progress in this area than we have in previous years.

Prediction number four is that by this time next year, we’ll all be pretty sick of hearing about mobile, mobile, mobile. Mobile health – or mHealth – is already taking off around the globe, with countries such as India and Africa seeing widescale mHealth efforts in the form of disaster awareness, disease management, and medication reminders. With these types of programs flourishing around the globe, it’s just a matter of time before these types of programs take hold here in the U.S.  Now, while mobile web adoption is growing at rapid-fire rates here in the States, I think the U.S. market has a few years to go before mobile Web and application downloads become commonplace. So remember, I didn’t say that mHealth adoption would skyrocket in 2009 – I just think that by this time next year, we’ll have heard a lot of talk about it.

Prediction number five is that we’ll see more sites offering quick online consultations with physicians. Did you see the episode of House where Dr. Cutner poses as Dr. House while answering questions for patients online? Hilarity ensues, of course. But I think this points to a trend we’ll see be seeing a lot more of – sites that are a little less involved than the traditional telemedicine types of consultations being offered through insurers, employers and other means – but that are more for  “quick hit” questions for consumers who just have a question they want answered. Currently, patients are turning to communities (mostly of other consumers) for these types of inquiries, but we hear a strong demand for the ability to get these questions answered by doctors online.

So there you have it – that’s my two cents on what’s ahead for 2009. Have some of your own predictions to share? Get a conversation going on Twitter! Our Twitter name is @manhattanresear or I’m @meredithressi.


Thanks again, and stay well.



If you have questions, comments, or suggestions for future podcasts, please email podcast@manhattanresearch.com.


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